世界基準のスマホ証券 - 低手数料でグローバルトレード（すべてのコメント）

Seth Golden
Boom ? that just happened ? $SPX with 4 straight days of at least 70% of stocks advancing. Since 1990, when this occurred, market was higher 6 & 12 months forward 92% of the time. Average return 8.7% and 10.6% respectively! $ES_F $SPY $QQQ $IWM $NYA $VOO h/t @SubuTrade pic.x.com/9BVeTUnlYK

Jason Goepfert
A cheery New Year opening gap for S&P 500 futures has been a good sign for SPY. The only immediate and persistent failure was in 2000 ? pic.x.com/ORdRdcDOnN

まつのすけ
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Subu Trade
Fun Fact Wednesday: $NVDA crashed on Monday (more than -10%), rallied yesterday (more than +5%), and fell again today (more than -4%). This only happened 4 other times. Check out those future returns. *Don't bet the farm on this ? pic.x.com/3pNNfdYxP7

Ryan Detrick, CMT
The S&P 500 closed above 6,000 recently, hitting another major 1k milestone and second one this year. Be aware 1, 3, and 6 months later tends to be better than avg returns. In fact, never lower six months later (up 6 for 6) and up 7.7% on avg. pic.x.com/1g9eO0Zq7t

Jurrien Timmer
with Q2 earnings season now behind us, we can see that the quarter produced the customary 300-500 bps bounce. Q2 earnings are 13.3% higher than a year ago. Pretty good. We remain in that phase of the market cycle where earnings are now doing the heavy lifting, while valuation… pic.x.com/6qckkjw65

Ryan Detrick, CMT
There is no holy grail when it comes to investing, but new highs in earnings estimates might be about as close as you can get to why we've been overweight equities since December 2022. Hit another new high recently and accelerating higher once again. pic.x.com/lng0FjRdlS

海事プレスOnline
三井E&S、三井MAN B＆Wブランドのエンジン累計生産1億2000万馬力を達成。1928年の1号機製造以来96年で。「国内造船所が求めるエンジンをきちんと供給することが使命。必要な設備投資を進め、ニーズに対応していく」。 kaijipress.com/news/shipbuild… pic.x.com/IXEvT9QDAb

Ryan Detrick, CMT
Record 14 days in a row of more declining stocks than advancing stocks for the S&P 500 ended on Friday. Here's what happened after previous long streaks ended. ? pic.x.com/WV6PU7juQF

Seth Golden
Remarkable long-term breadth!! At no point in 2024 has percentage of stocks trading above their 200-DMA fallen below 60%. In post-Covid era, have not seen such an elevated and stable regime of long-term breadth. Notable fading in 2021 not present today either. $SPX $SPY $QQQ… pic.x.com/FRK0tVmbCt

David Keller, CMT
$SPX remains above "the one trendline to rule them all". The trend is your friend until the end when it bends! pic.twitter.com/nXEIeCaUiA

Ryan Detrick, CMT
The S&P 500 is currently up 15.4% during the 'Sell in May' period for one of the best returns ever. What happens next? Strength in these usually weak months is a clue the bull is alive and well. When >10% or more? Next six months higher 10 of 11 times and up 13.2% on avg. ? pic.x.com/EpVH1thdKT

Seth Golden
Rarely is Mr. Market taken by surprise. $SPX has risen 10 of last 11 months. A year later market has only been down once. More importantly, the market has been a good predictor of the economy, with only 1 occurrence (1929) finding a recession 12-months forward. $ES_F $SPY $IWM… pic.x.com/xsiqwbDSn

Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT ?
Reminder: Investing at an all-time high has been better than waiting for a pullback. SPX since 1988 pic.x.com/unndmnuekv

Seth Golden
Small-cap Russell 2000 retest 200-DMA 1/13/2025 and after trading above 200-DMA for more than a year. Since 1994, every time it's trading for more than a year above 200-DMA, 12-months forward $RUT has been higher EVERY. SINGLE. TIME. ? Max Drawdown ~7% $SPX $IWM $RTY $QQQ… pic.x.com/qm6dn87eGx

Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT ?
It's a new bull market in SPX earnings pic.x.com/f77npfnhyd

Sonu Varghese
返信先:@RyanDetrick他2人And the Fed just put a floor under the economy A fairly clear sign about this being a growth story (and a tailwind for equities) was cyclicals rallying and real yields rising after Fed meeting Too many puzzled over rising yields post Fed (and panicking over a big cut) pic.x.com/

Seth Golden
Huh? While P/E ratios offer reasonable 10-year $SPX return probabilities, the 1-yr forward P/E ratios give you no idea of what to expect, none whatsoever. Reality is that looking at P/Es for 10-yr returns is 2nd most useless measure of forward return expectations, 2nd... I'm… pic.x.com/aP4WEC6Q

Ryan Detrick, CMT
Up 20% two years in a row? Not saying the next year can't be red, but if this is why you are bearish, history isn't on your side. pic.x.com/XXDMAszm8X

Seth Golden
Misplaced worry? The S&P 500 is making all-time highs with VIX > 20. Historically, this is a very positive signal. 103 occurrences since 1990. $SPX was higher ~90% of the time 1-yr later and median return was +18%. $SPY $QQQ $DIA $IWM $ES_F $VIX $UVXY pic.x.com/3QHIJNINsY

Seth Golden
Bull markets ? are greater in magnitude and longer in duration. Do you find yourself worrying about the risk of lesser declines for shorter periods of time? Upside risk is highly under-appreciated, and downside risk overly considered. $SPX $SPY $QQQ $NYSE $ES_F $AAPL $IWM… pic.x.com/k5axl3gcgf

Jason Goepfert
Tech stocks are about to crash. That's according to the dreaded "gravestone doji" that triggered at the 2021 peak. Here's the problem - that's the only time that pattern has ever worked on the Nasdaq. It did precede corrections, eventually, after the 2015 and 2018 signals. pic.x.com/ohrTYRh98S

ISABELNET
? Global M2 The increase in global M2 money supply suggests that liquidity is on the rise, which is likely to stimulate economic activity and push equity markets higher ? isabelnet.com/blog/ @MorganStanley #moneysupply #liquidity $spx #spx #stocks #stockmarket #equities pic.x.com/ng46JJjfyr

Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT ?
Almost half of the S&P 500 is now essentially tech pic.twitter.com/NLzI37tSh6

J.C. Parets
It feels like just yesterday they were all complaining that only the biggest stocks were doing well and the rest couldn't keep up. Now they're bitching that the biggest stocks can't keep up with the broad-based rally in Technology lol pic.x.com/RmlmZiJRRg

Seth Golden
Dr. Ed Yardeni: "...we are sticking with our Roaring 2020s base-case scenario (with a 60% subjective probability) targeting the S&P 500 $SPX at 5800 by the end of the year, 6300 next year, and 6825 in 2026." $SPY $QQQ $NYA $IWM $COMPQ pic.x.com/si2sempsa9

Subu Trade
Sentiment crashed: AAII Bulls-Bears plunged to -41.2%, one of the lowest readings ever! Historically, this was bullish for stocks.

Ryan Detrick, CMT
2024 is one of the better first 10 months ever for stocks. When S&P 500 up >17.5% YTD going into Nov (like '24) the returns the rest of the year have been very strong. Higher in Nov 12 of 14 times and up in Dec 11 of 14 times. NEVER lower the final two months of the year. ? pic.x.com/YITHkCrPVF

Jurrien Timmer
On the earnings front, things still look decent here, with 2024 expected earnings hanging in there at 9.5% and 2025 estimates holding up at 14.5%. Margins are back to the 2021 highs. pic.x.com/os48pvrsy4

Ryan Detrick, CMT
Remember on July 16 more than 100 stocks in the S&P 500 hit a 52-wk high, while more than 300 also hit a 10-day high. This is extremely strong breadth, so the near-term was ripe for weakness, but historically this has suggested much higher prices going 6 and 12 months out.… pic.x.com/bi1pejuhlw

Ryan Detrick, CMT
S&P 500 up 7 days in a row and up nearly 7%, best 7 day win streak return since Mar '03! Strength like this isn't consistent w ?market rallies, but healthy bull markets. Up 7 in a row and >6% during streak? Above avg returns across the board. 12 mo median 17.5% return ? pic.x.com/ykwtjqbw6n

Ryan Detrick, CMT
The S&P 500 might close lower this week, ending a 6-week win streak. Down a month later is perfectly normal, but a year later? Higher 19 out of 22 times (86.4%) and up 12.6% on avg. Bottom line, long weekly win streaks happen in bull markets and we are in a bull market. pic.x.com/Q1SV3Sbg6I

Adam Khoo
There is always something to worry about . Your success as an investor depends on your ability to ignore the worries of the world long enough to allow your investments to succeed. pic.x.com/sdxlgvby1b

Todd Gordon
$NVDA target of $285 in 2025. In my opinion revenues of $32.9B, $36.5B, $39.5B, and $42.9B in coming 4 quarters are conservative and likely to revised higher. The question is will those revisions keep up with price appreciation following wave-4 triangle break keeping NVDA at 46… pic.x.com/jzw4lV5n

Jason Goepfert
On track for the 4th-largest gap up in $IWM history. The 2008 bailout gap was an utter rug-pull, otherwise... pic.x.com/VhdJ5GDack

Matt Cerminaro
Tech has surged 11.2% over the past 6D. - Only seen a few times since 2019 - All have marked important "lows" - And preceded strong rallies ? pic.x.com/ymlc08obl6

Ryan Detrick, CMT
Stocks historically do better in years 1 and 2 of a President who was re-elected vs a new President in office. pic.x.com/ndj0ZbE4jp

Seth Golden
Morgan Stanley: Dollar and S&P 500 relationship is almost nonexistent. S&P 500 corporations always have rolling carpet exchange rate hedging strategies to mitigate impact from fluctuations in currency. $SPX $ES_F $SPY $DXY $QQQ $IWM $NYA $DIA h/t via @SamRo pic.x.com/Nvf8tdfxLE

Steve Deppe, CMT
The S&P 500's 5-month winning streak didn't make it to 6. Boo-hoo. This is very, very, rare, but the monthly decline in month 7 hasn't historically derailed the indexes upward momentum - never lower 7-12 months out but this is a crime of small numbers! $spx pic.x.com/tp0cNWrHwX

Seth Golden
Semis outperformed $SPX through year-end 2024 consolidation. The performance ratio may have triple bottomed. Semis may have worked off enough of pull-forward price action in 2024 to provide leadership once again. Biggest industry group in SPX; no other leadership will satisfy.… pic.x.com/kFW9TS0RV

Barchart
Nvidia $NVDA will be worth $6 Trillion and trade at $250 by year end says EMJ Capital pic.twitter.com/SjodKxdzz9

Ryan Detrick, CMT
The S&P 500 is up 6 weeks in a row for the first time this year. I found 51 other times it did this and stocks were higher a year later 86.3% of the time and up 11.1% on avg. Both are better than the any-time returns. Yet another clue this is a bull market. Plan accordingly. pic.x.com/ZbKhGt1P5A

Ryan Detrick, CMT
More than 50% of the components in the S&P 500 recently hit a 20-day high. Ideally, want it to be a tad higher, but still worth noting higher a yr later 23 of 26 times (88%) and up about 2x usual median return. Bottom line, any weakness shouldn't = panic. pic.twitter.com/T08PL25d9b

Seth Golden
AVOID BofA annotations, did you know that Money Market Funds are a perfect, absolutely friggin' perfect timing tool. Again, avoid the annotations and look at 2009 and 2020 peaks, precisely when $SPX bottoms. Useful exercise, look beyond the annotations $SPY $QQQ $DIA $IWM pic.twitter.com/lH7zdLfk

Seth Golden
Fundstrat's Tom Lee: Current small-cap rally has room to run?, ranks only 21st of top 25 since 1979. And that is with EPS turning higher. Could expect ~40%+ gain over coming 10 weeks. $SPX $IWM $RUT $QQQ $NYA h/t @fundstrat pic.twitter.com/oLtTxfYFiv

Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT ?
"The source of the rise in the unemployment rate is not job cuts but a rise in labor supply because of rising immigration. That is the reason why the Sahm rule doesn’t work. The Sahm rule was designed for a decline in labor demand, not a rise in immigration." -Torsten pic.x.com/kag1xhohyr

TrendSpider
End of June dips often turn into July rips on $QQQ The Nasdaq 100 has a 85% win rate in July over the last two decades with a mean return of +3.48% ? pic.twitter.com/2AMOjdWqKd

まつのすけ
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まつのすけ
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まつのすけ
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Ryan Detrick, CMT
Could the Fed really cut with stocks at all-time highs? Yes is the answer. They've done it 20 times (since 1980) and the S&P was higher a year later 20 times.

Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT ?
Junk bonds yielding 6.6% is hardly a recession signal wisdomtree.com/-/media/us-med… pic.x.com/dfvc92okdu

Barchart
Shorting stocks right now would be insanity warns Big Short Investor Steve Eisman pic.twitter.com/ZVdT6qFIoN

Daily Chartbook
“The market tends to produce returns above the historical average in periods when concentration is rising and returns below the average when concentration is falling.” - MS Mauboussin pic.twitter.com/tZ160nYnXM

Daily Chartbook
“The market tends to produce returns above the historical average in periods when concentration is rising and returns below the average when concentration is falling.” - MS Mauboussin